Trump prepares to take office with a very slim Republican majority in the House

President-elect Donald Trump is expected to take office in January with a razor-thin Republican majority in the House of Representatives that gives Republicans virtually no room for error.

On Wednesday night, one of two outstanding races in California tilted in favor of the Democrats, giving Adam Gray a lead of about 182 votes over Republican Rep. John Duarte in the 13th Congressional District, in land, in the San Joaquin Valley. In California’s 45th Congressional District, anchored by Orange and Los Angeles counties, Democrat Derek Tran has a lead of about 600 votes over Republican Michelle Steel.

In Iowa, Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is up 800 votes in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, although a recount is unlikely to change the outcome in the competitive district. Miller-Meeks won her seat for the first time in 2020 by six votes.

If these results hold, the House will start with a Republican majority of 220 to 215, even slimmer than Congress’s current margin.

The Republican ranks, however, fell to 219 with the resignation of former Representative Matt Gaetz. It could fall further to 217 depending on the timing of the resignations of Reps. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and Mike Waltz, R-Fla., who are expected to join the Trump administration as U.S. ambassador to the Nations United Nations and national security. advisor, respectively.

That would send the House to a margin of 217-215, which would give Republicans no room for error, since any tie vote at 216-216 would fail.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., pleaded with Trump to avoid taking on other House members for his administration.

“It’s a big deal,” Johnson said on Fox News earlier this month. “We have an embarrassment of riches in the House Republican Congress. Lots of talented people who are very sympathetic to the ‘America First’ agenda and who can serve the country well in other capacities.”

“But I’ve already said enough to President Trump, give me some relief. I have to maintain this majority. And he understands that, of course, we talk about this almost every hour, every day,” he said. -he added.

Republicans have already faced chaos in the current Congress.

Gangs of hard-liners have grown just enough to block votes on bills, measures that were once considered unacceptable in the halls of Congress. And, unforgettably, Republican divisions left the House without a speaker for days, both early on when Kevin McCarthy was seeking the required support and again after he gave up the gavel and members were torn apart for days before gathering behind Johnson.

Heading into the current Congress, Republicans have sought to grease the wheels a little more to try to prevent such public brawls from happening again in the future.

Republicans agreed to increase from one to nine the number of lawmakers needed to trigger a vote to oust a president. In return, lawmakers who oppose proposals to allow votes on bills will not face retaliation.

But with such a narrow margin, any Republican could throw the floor into chaos and block passage of key bills along party lines.

One of the most important pending pieces of legislation is the extension of the 2017 tax cuts that Trump pushed through during his first term. They are set to expire next year and Republicans had hoped to extend them — but 12 House Republicans voted against the 2017 GOP tax law, which only passed thanks to a larger majority at the time.

In 2017, when Republicans passed a rewrite of the tax code under the first Trump administration, 12 House Republicans — part of a larger majority at the time — voted against the bill, but did not prevent its adoption.

Republicans began the 118th Congress in 2023 with 222 seats, a 10-seat margin over Democrats’ 212, a majority that spent weeks over the winter choosing a House speaker and part of the fall to choose a replacement.

A few illnesses, particular electoral surprises or absences could also disrupt the Republicans’ careful balance.

In 1917, Republicans held the narrowest majority in history, with a 215-213 advantage over Democrats. But a group of small-party lawmakers worked with the minority to elect a speaker, delivering the chamber to Democrats. according to Pew.