US seeks balance between supporting Syrian people and protecting US interests (ANALYSIS)

After the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the Biden administration is trying to strike a balance: promising to allow the Syrian people to chart their own course while committing to protecting American interests and preventing a lasting power vacuum takes hold in the country. country.

In his remarks on Assad’s ouster Monday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken struck a cautiously optimistic tone, emphasizing that the historic moment posed “considerable risks” but promising that the United States was already working to avoid them.

“It is up to the Syrian people to choose their path, their future. As we speak, senior officials from this department are deploying to the region, working with their counterparts on how the United States can help support the Syrian people as they decide their own path forward,” he said.

But in addition to supporting the Syrian people, these officials also advance the administration’s agenda, including working to gather intelligence on Austin Tice, a former U.S. Marine and independent journalist who was kidnapped in Syria 12 years ago .

Roger Carstens, the Biden administration’s top hostage negotiator, visited Lebanon after Assad’s ouster, according to a State Department official.

A senior administration official said one of the reasons Carstens traveled to the country was to track down an unconfirmed tip that Tice was in the Syrian capital – gathered using signals intelligence.

As the United States tries to turn the chaos in Syria into an opportunity to gather more information on Tice, the Biden administration is also trying to prevent ISIS from using the unrest to launch a resurgence — something Blinken said the group would definitely try.

On Sunday, the US military launched a series of airstrikes against ISIS militants. Pentagon officials described the attacks as preemptive measures to prevent the group from reorganizing in Syria and signaled that further strikes were likely.

Another concern created by the fall of the Assad regime is the stockpiles of chemical weapons it may have left in the country. Although the Obama administration reached a deal with Assad’s ally Russia to destroy banned munitions, that deal has not been fully implemented and efforts to inspect remaining arsenals have failed.

U.S. officials fear that stockpiles of the ingredients needed to create these chemical weapons, or even the weapons themselves, could remain in Syria and fall into the hands of bad actors.

The Israeli military has said it has carried out strikes against suspected chemical weapons and missile sites in recent days, but the full picture of the location of these depots in Syria remains unclear.

As the Biden administration celebrates the end of Assad’s rule, concern over who will rule Syria next is palpable.

U.S. officials fear that the prolonged absence of a central authority in Syria could lead to post-revolutionary unrest similar to the political and humanitarian crises still plaguing Libya and Sudan.

But they also have reservations about the group that led the coalition of rebels that defeated Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an al-Qaeda affiliate and listed as a terrorist organization by the United States. .

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has attempted to distance itself from its jihadist roots, but Biden administration officials have expressed skepticism, fearing the group would revert to its old ways once in power.

In a speech on Sunday, President Joe Biden indicated that the United States was unlikely to rethink its position on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in the near future.

“As they take on greater responsibilities, we will evaluate not only their words, but also their actions,” he said.

But as Washington experiences its own transition of power, it’s unclear which Biden administration priorities for Syria the Trump administration will keep in place.

“Syria is a disaster, but it is not our friend,” & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS,” President-elect Donald Trump said in a statement Saturday.

“Trump’s stated goal is to stay out of the conflict in Syria, but many U.S. allies have acute interests at stake in Syria, and the potential for problems in Syria to metastasize is significant,” he said. said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the University of Washington. Center for Strategic and International Studies and former State Department official.

“There is no doubt in my mind that this situation will evolve over many, many months,” he said. “And while the decisions made today are important, the consequences of most of these decisions will not be clear until we are well established in the Trump administration.”