With its economy and infrastructure in tatters, can Lebanon afford a war with Israel?
BEIRUT — THE Heavy exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and the Israeli army raises fears of a regional war across the tense border.
The risks for Lebanon are far greater than in 2006, when a month-long war with Israel ended in a draw. Lebanon has faced years of political and military tensions. economic crises which left it in debt, without a stable electricity supply, without an adequate banking system and with endemic poverty.
And with Hezbollah’s military power greatly increased, there are fears that a new war could be triggered. much more destructive and extended.
Can Lebanon afford all this?
Since Hezbollah and Israel began exchanging rockets and drones the day after the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza began on October 7, the conflict has been largely confined to border towns. But with the threat of a wider war looming, Lebanon has moved quickly to equip hospitals and prepare public schools to accommodate people seeking shelter.
An Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut last month that killed a senior Hezbollah official sparked a series of meetings between aid groups and the Lebanese government, said Laila Al Amine, who heads the Beirut office of the international aid organization Mercy Corps. The organization is one of about 60 organizations helping the government with its relief efforts.
The government and UN agencies prepared a comprehensive response plan this month outlining two possible scenarios: a limited escalation that would resemble the 2006 war, with about 250,000 people displaced, and a worst-case scenario of “uncontrolled conflict” that would displace at least 1 million people.
The U.N. plan, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press, calls for a monthly cost of $50 million in the event of a limited escalation and $100 million if all-out war breaks out.
The Lebanese government has said funding for emergency aid will come from creditors and humanitarian organizations. But authorities are struggling to find the money to care for the 100,000 people currently displaced and 60,000 people living in conflict zones, costing about $24 million a month.
Environment Minister Nasser Yassin, who is leading the rescue operation, told reporters after an emergency government meeting on Sunday that the morning’s attacks would not change the plan.
“It already presents scenarios of all the possibilities that could happen, including an expansion of hostilities,” Yassin said.
Decades of corruption and political paralysis have left Lebanon’s banks barely functional, while electricity services are almost entirely in the hands of diesel generator owners and private fuel suppliers. Public service institutions depend on aid groups and international donors to operate at a bare minimum. Lebanese who once lived in relative comfort are receiving food and financial aid to survive.
In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic further devastated the economy, and the Beirut port explosion leveled several neighborhoods in the heart of the capital. Lebanon’s banks and ruling elite resisted painful reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund to secure a bailout, as infrastructure continued to deteriorate and living conditions worsened.
Tourism, which officials had been counting on to help rebuild the economy, has also been hit by the border conflict with Israel.
And unlike in 2006, Lebanon is hosting more than a million Syrian refugees who fled the conflict in their country. Health Minister Firas Abiad He told the AP earlier this month that Lebanon’s health system was ill-equipped to treat the additional population in the event of an all-out war, as international funding for Syrian refugees continues to dwindle.
In April, Yassin said the country had only half the money it needed to respond to the conflict and related humanitarian needs.
In 2006, Israel bombed the runways of Lebanon’s only airport, rendering it virtually unusable, and imposed an air and sea blockade. Its bombings crippled critical infrastructure and leveled neighborhoods, causing $3.1 billion in damage and losses, according to the World Bank.
But aid agencies were eventually able to send supplies through the country’s ports and sometimes through the airport, using limited runway space. In its assessment of the war, the U.N. said its relief efforts were not responding to a humanitarian crisis. “People did not die because of poor sanitation, hunger or disease. They died because of bombs and shells,” OCHA said in a report released a month after the war.
Many Lebanese have been able to flee to neighboring Syria, where an uprising plunged the country into civil war in 2011. It is unclear whether the border crossing will be easy this time, either for civilians or for aid organizations.
It is also unclear whether Beirut’s port, which has yet to be fully rebuilt after a devastating 2020 explosion, would have sufficient capacity in the event of a wider war. Its damaged grain silos collapsed in 2022, and the country relies on minimal food storage due to the financial crisis.
“Lebanon apparently has food and fuel reserves for two or three months, but what happens beyond that?” Al Amine asked. “We only have one airport and we cannot transport goods through our land borders. It would be difficult to bring goods into the country.”
In 2006, Hezbollah reportedly had about 15,000 rockets in its arsenal, “but more recent unofficial estimates suggest that number has increased nearly tenfold,” said Dina Arakji, an associate analyst at U.K.-based risk consultancy Control Risks.
The group has also “acquired more advanced weapons, including precision missiles and variants of Iranian weapons, as well as Chinese and Russian weapons,” she said.
Hezbollah, which relies on a network of Iranian-backed allied groups that could enter the conflict, has also significantly expanded its arsenal and drone capabilities, against which Israeli air defenses are less effective.
Lebanese officials and international diplomats hope that a ceasefire agreement in Gaza will bring calm to southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has said it will stop attacks along the border if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza.
___
Associated Press videographer Ali Sharafeddine contributed to this report.
