Voters willing to change their minds are few, but potentially significant: ANALYSIS

A close election could come down to persuadables, those Americans who have no intention of voting for Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump but don’t rule them out outright. But convincing them is no easy task, according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll. Persuadables are few in number, especially among registered and likely voters; they are less supportive of Harris and Trump; and they are particularly disinterested in the election.

In fact, the question is not simply who they vote for, but whether they actually vote.

Twelve percent of respondents are willing to change their minds. Of those, 7% do not currently support Harris but say they would consider voting for her, and 7% do not currently support Trump but would consider voting for him, with a slight overlap of 1% who would consider both.

But those numbers are falling among registered and likely voters. Just 4% of registered voters and 2% of likely voters don’t support Harris right now but say they would consider her. That’s a similar percentage of 5% of registered voters and 3% of likely voters for Trump. The analysis, conducted for ABC by Langer Research Associatesindicates a low probability of victory among confident candidates, even though in a close race every vote counts.

In the results for all adults (for adequate sample sizes), the confident are relatively disengaged. Only about four in ten are following the election closely, compared with two-thirds of adults overall. Only about a quarter say they are certain to vote in November, compared with 63% of Americans overall. Indeed, about half of the confident say they will not vote if given a choice between Harris and Trump, compared with 14% of all adults. And fewer say they are registered to vote or say they voted in 2020, other strong indicators of voting this fall.

See PDF for full results.

Persuadable people are less likely than others to align with either major party and more likely to be independent or choose another party. They are also more likely to be political moderates: 64% of those willing to vote for Harris and 62% of those willing to support Trump, compared with 42% of Americans overall.

Twenty-eight percent of likely Trump voters favor a third party candidate, as do 17 percent of likely Harris voters (a slight difference, given the sample sizes). That compares to just 7 percent of adults overall. The poll was conducted before Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he was withdrawing from the race.

Persuadable people are also more likely than adults in general to express dissatisfaction with the choice between Harris and Trump as the majority party’s nominee. Far more say neither is honest and trustworthy, represents their personal values, or understands the problems of people like them.

As with adults in general, the economy and inflation are by far the most important issues for persuadable adults. There are, however, some differences in the importance of these issues: Persuadable adults are less likely than the general public to say that protecting American democracy and nominations to the U.S. Supreme Court will be very important in their vote.

Those who consider Trump are less likely than adults in general to say that abortion, the Israel-Hamas war, and race relations are very important; and, relative to those who consider Harris, they are more likely to focus on immigration and slightly more likely to care about crime. Those who consider Harris are less likely than adults in general to say that immigration is very important; and, relative to those who consider Trump, they are slightly more likely to focus on gun violence.

Demographically, the candidates likely to be won over are relatively young (30% are under 30, compared with 20% of all adults) and have lower annual household incomes (41% have less than $50,000, compared with 26% of all adults). Potential candidates for Harris’s appeal are more likely to be urban residents and people of color.

Overall, among those who do not currently support Harris or Trump, nearly nine in ten say they would not even consider doing so. So campaigns have two tasks to tackle: first, maximize turnout among their current supporters. And second, tap into the small pool of candidates who are hard to convince.

For more on the latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, click here.