The United States and its NATO allies are training to use naval missiles in preparation for a possible confrontation with Russia in the Baltic Sea

LONDON — Last month, NATO troops, ships and aircraft took to the frigid waters of the North Atlantic to hone their skills for a possible future war at sea, whether in the turbulent Atlantic or in waters closer to their hypothetical Russian adversaries.

The exercises, conducted by U.S. Naval Forces Europe and the U.S. Navy’s 6th Fleet, “focused on the strategic waterways and airspace surrounding Iceland,” NATO said in a news release, an area it described as “a vital hub in the North Atlantic.” NATO forces practiced tracking enemy naval forces – including submarines – and responding to mass casualty events.

But part of the exercise was designed with a different region in mind, although the same hypothetical enemy.

With US Navy P-8 Poseidon aircraft as their eyes, Polish Naval Strike Missile (NSM) units used their time in Iceland to simulate strikes on enemy ships at sea.

Lt. Bartlomiej Gryglewski, a liaison officer with the Polish Navy’s naval missile unit, told ABC News that his contingent had completed all the steps up to the actual firing of the munitions. “We’ve ‘conducted’ a lot of strikes,” Gryglewski said, describing the Norwegian-made NSM as a “pretty impressive” weapon.

The combination of the “precise missile” and the information gathered by the American aircraft above gives “a high percentage chance – almost 100% – that the target will be hit,” Gryglewski added.

The North Atlantic, however, is not the expected hunting ground.

“We almost always conduct our exercises in the Baltic region,” Gryglewski said, “to protect the Baltic Sea region from the enemy” as part of Poland’s coastal defense system.

NATO’s “Lake”

Russia “faces a real imbalance” with its NATO rivals, Sidharth Kaushal of the U.K.’s Royal United Services Institute think tank told ABC News.

The inclusion of Finland and Sweden in NATO – a direct consequence of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – has prompted some officials to jokingly refer to the Baltic Sea as “NATO’s lake.”

“It’s a bit of an exaggeration, but only a bit,” Kaushal said. “The maritime imbalance is clearly in NATO’s favor, and that’s a huge problem for Russia.”

The Baltic Sea remains a key export route for Russian ships departing from terminals in St. Petersburg. Commercial and military vessels must cross the sea to reach the Atlantic Ocean, passing through the Gulf of Finland and the narrow Danish Straits, under NATO watch.

The Russian strategic enclave of Kaliningrad is surrounded by NATO countries, with its approaches within sight of the Latvian, Polish and Swedish coasts.

In the event of war, NATO aircraft and ships could launch attacks on Russian territory from the Baltic region, which “would give Russian air defenses very limited warning times,” Kashual noted.

“The alliance’s dominance in the Baltic Sea poses a whole series of problems for the Russians,” Kaushal said. “Reminding Russia of this fact is probably an important goal for the Americans and for the alliance as a whole.”

The Russian Foreign Ministry and the Kremlin regularly criticize NATO military exercises, especially those taking place near its border. In July, for example, Moscow denounced NATO military exercises in Finland, calling them “part of NATO’s provocative efforts to contain Russia.”

Control of the Baltic Sea is not a given for Western allies. Russia’s cruise missile strikes on Ukraine from the Black Sea since 2022 have been devastating and have proven that Moscow can “pose a real threat deep into all of Europe,” Kashual said.

“Sinking them quickly and demonstrating our ability to do so would be a real priority for countries in the region like Poland, even if the overall balance of power is now heavily tilted in NATO’s favour in the Baltic,” he added.

“There is a question of timing: can the Baltic Fleet be sunk in a timely and cost-effective manner before it has caused an unacceptable level of damage across Europe with its cruise missiles?”

The Polish NSMs, Kashual added, could prove to be “a big part” of NATO’s answer to this issue.

The Polish government announced this in its 2032 plan. “Through the strengthening of coastal missile units, manned and unmanned reconnaissance platforms, modern mine warfare and submarines, we will significantly increase our capabilities to protect our coastline.”

Western armies will nevertheless have to face the same industrial constraints that have so crippled Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

Advanced technologies like the NSM can be effective, but resupplying munitions could prove difficult. Last fall, the Polish Defense Ministry signed a deal with NSM manufacturer Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace for “several hundred” additional missiles.

The naval missile forces have many concrete examples to draw on. In the Black Sea, Ukraine managed to contain the Russian Black Sea Fleet and even sink the flagship Moskva.

In the Middle East, the Houthis in Yemen have struck dozens of commercial vessels and attacked Western warships in nearby waters. The group has even claimed to have fired on ships in the Mediterranean Sea.

“I think everybody has some experience with it,” Gryglewski said of the two ongoing conflicts. “But that’s all I can say about it right now.”