Harris is nearing the end of her term as vice president, but one rule reigns supreme: analysis

Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to announce her running mate on Tuesday, but amid all the hubbub over who she will choose, one mantra remains the unwavering rule of any vice presidential search: Do no harm.

Rumors are rife about the three men who are said to be at the top of the vice presidential list: Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Tim Walz of Minnesota and Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona. The search likely takes into account their different appeals, backgrounds, personal baggage and location on the electoral map to boost Harris’ standing.

But it’s unclear how much a running mate helps the front-runner — and the downsides of choosing someone who isn’t ready for the bright lights of a national campaign are severe, perhaps making the lack of negatives outweigh any possible positives a candidate brings.

“Ultimately, the most practical thing is to do no harm,” said former Sen. Doug Jones, a Democrat from Alabama, a Harris ally.

“Who’s the governor of what state? Who’s the senator of what state? What do they bring? There’s all these public documents about what other factors you would include. But the vetting … is where you really have to do a deep dive to make sure someone meets the other criteria, but it can be at best value-added, at worst neutral, because you certainly don’t want someone to knock the ticket off the table,” he added.

The candidates vying to be Harris’s nominee have held days of auditions, spoken to various media outlets, sung the vice president’s praises and attacked former President Donald Trump and Sen. J.D. Vance, his running mate. Last weekend, some of them were interviewed in person at Harris’s residence in Washington.

Of Shapiro, Walz and Kelly, each brings their own advantages.

Shapiro is a rising star and a popular governor of the nation’s swing state. Walz brings a progressive record and the popular appeal of a white-haired Midwesterner, as well as a long history in Washington, the military and public education. Kelly boasts a distinguished resume as a combat veteran and former astronaut from a swing state married to a survivor of political violence.

Each of them also brings vulnerabilities.

Shapiro has drawn the ire of progressives for his positions on Israel, vouchers and handling of a sexual misconduct complaint against a member of his gubernatorial cabinet. Walz risks exacerbating attacks on Harris as a “California liberal” with his own political record. And Kelly isn’t exactly known for delivering fiery speeches on the campaign trail.

Democrats insist they are happy with their choices, saying any of the top candidates would be a positive addition to Harris’ ticket.

“The stakes are very high. But fortunately for us, all three of her finalists are superstars and would do us good,” said Democratic strategist David Brand, who works with Harris’s team and said he personally endorses Shapiro.

However, various factors will be taken into account and the disadvantages will be weighed against the advantages.

“There seems to be a bit of baggage around him, but again, I think all of that is overshadowed by the very possibility, if she chooses him, that he could help secure Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes. That’s not insignificant,” said one Democratic pollster, using Shapiro as an example.

Harris “has one priority in this campaign, and that’s winning the election,” the source added. “She’s going to let that filter and that calculation be the only calculation in her mind when she decides who she chooses. And you can be sure that whoever she chooses, she chose because she believed that person helped her win the election. Nothing else.”

Typically, running mates have not moved the electoral needle in any meaningful, positive way, and many of them enjoyed a surge of attention after their announcements before becoming largely minor factors in recent heavyweight presidential contests.

A source familiar with the Harris campaign’s thinking said a running mate has the potential to change the race — either by adding an edge and complementing Harris or by making a misstep — and that their potential to change the race is often underestimated. But traditionally, this person said, voters decide how they vote based on who is the top candidate on the ticket.

“I think a vice president can be a liability. I think he can also be a help. And as is usually the case, he can have little impact,” the person said.

The downside of having a running mate, however, could be considerable.

Democratic strategists have cited the example of Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska. Palin, once a rising star in the Republican Party, was chosen as Sen. John McCain’s running mate in 2008. After initially injecting a dose of youthful enthusiasm into her presidential campaign, she faltered on the national stage when her lack of political skills was exposed.

Her choice as running mate has since been partly responsible for McCain’s defeat to Barack Obama – and Democrats are wary of a similar outcome, with the source familiar with Harris’ campaign saying a similar failure would be “problematic.”

“I think a bad choice can make a difference in the final outcome,” Jones added. “And given the state of the country right now, a bad choice doesn’t have to make a difference in the final outcome that much to impact a critical state. It could be two or three percentage points. It could be 10,000 or 20,000 votes.”

The high stakes of this decision have Democrats working behind the scenes to persuade Harris to choose the better — and safer — choice.

Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. John Fetterman is reportedly lobbying against Shapiro, a longtime personal rival. And donors are joining him with their own suggestions.

The backbiting has frustrated some Democrats, including Jones, who said such disputes should be handled privately and out of the view of the press and public.

Others, however, are less concerned.

“Are they all going to rush to support Trump tomorrow?” Brand asked sarcastically. “That always happens. I don’t really worry about it.”