Trump vs. McConnell: The Final Showdown: ANALYSIS

Some of Donald Trump’s most fervent and vocal supporters within the MAGA right view Wednesday’s Senate GOP leadership election as the first major test of Republican loyalty to the president-elect and the final battle between Trump and his occasional Republican nemesis, the outgoing GOP leader. Mitch McConnell.

Republican senators are meeting behind closed doors Wednesday morning to vote on whether to choose McConnell’s successor in a three-way race that pits two senators – John Thune and John Cornyn – considered McConnell protégés and the third – Rick Scott – who has pledged his loyalty to Trump.

Many of Trump’s most prominent supporters, including Elon Musk, Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson, are campaigning forcefully against Thune and Cornyn, saying the race will determine whether the Republican-controlled Senate will be sufficiently loyal to the Trump agenda.

As Carlson said, “Florida’s Rick Scott is the only candidate who agrees with Donald Trump. Call your senator and demand public support for Rick Scott.”

Those campaigning against Thune and Cornyn describe the race as more than a battle for leadership.

“We are taking over every institution of government,” a prominent Trump ally told me. “This is not a transition. You understand that, right? We are taking over and it starts with the Senate.”

But for all the blunt talk about the Senate race, Trump hasn’t taken sides and all indications are that he won’t. A key factor, according to sources close to the president-elect, is that Trump doesn’t think Rick Scott can win the race and the last thing he wants to do is support a loser.

Even without that endorsement, Scott presents himself as the only true pro-Trump candidate in the race, saying that under his leadership the Senate agenda will be “the same as Trump’s.”

Both Thune and Cornyn have supported Trump and say they are equally committed to passing the Trump agenda.

But both have also shown a willingness to occasionally stand up to Trump. After voting to acquit Trump during the Senate impeachment trial in February 2021, for example, Thune said: “My vote to acquit should not be considered an exoneration of his conduct on January 6…or in the days and weeks leading up to it. What former President Trump did to undermine confidence in our electoral system and disrupt the peaceful transfer of power is inexcusable. »

Cornyn said Trump used “reckless and inflammatory speech” on Jan. 6 and criticized Trump’s handling of COVID-19.

Although Trump himself has not endorsed any nominee, he made two big demands of each of them this weekend: 1) He wants them to promise to confirm cabinet secretaries without a Senate vote if necessary ( using what is called “recess appointment”); and 2) He wants them to block the confirmation of judges while Democrats still control the Senate.

Scott responded almost immediately, announcing on

In a sign of Trump’s influence, Thune and Cornyn also expressed support for Trump’s request, both saying they were committed to doing everything possible to quickly confirm Trump’s nominees and also saying they were open to nominations during the holidays.

But if Thune or Cornyn become the next Republican leaders in the Senate, it could be a sign that Trump’s influence is not limitless — or, at the very least, that a Republican leader can demonstrate some independence while surviving within Trump’s Republican Party. .